An analysis of today's 11-race Guineas card

April 09, 2016
file FABULOUSCONNECTION (Hakeem Pottinger) finishing ahead of GRAND TRAIN (Linton Steadman) over 1000 metres round on March 5.
Ian Allen/Photographer Richard Halledeen aboard FUTURE KING (3) edging Aaron Chatrie aboard NUCLEAR AFFAIR to win the 104th running of the Supreme Ventures Jamaica 2-Y-O Stakes Trophy over 1600 metres at Caymanas Park on December 26, 2016.
Jermaine Barnaby/Freelance Photographer Trainer Gary Subratie (left) leading in NUCLEAR AFFAIR (Dane Nelson up) to the winners' enclosure after the 25th running of the Thornbird Stakes at Caymanas Park on Saturday, March 19.
@Normal:NUCLEAR AFFAIR with jockey Dane Nelson in the saddle.

An analysis of today's Post To Post Guineas 11-race card at Caymanas Park.

Race One

Selection: #6 DINNER BY SEVEN

One to watch: #5 BERRANCA

DINNER BY SEVEN looked comfortable throughout but raced wide of the field the entire trip on March 26. She was doing her best work in the final 200 metres of the l100 metres event and with a more purposeful effort she will not be beaten today. BERRANCA is definitely the class of the field and went down by a neck in that March 26 race. She has trained well since but needs a bit longer to be seen at her best.

Race Two


One to watch: #4 DOC HOLLIDAY

This is a two-horse race. The down in class DIFFERENTGENERATION will have to be caught. He is by far the fastest in the field and clocked 1:00.2 over 1000 metres straight while finishing just under nine lengths fifth against better horses on April 2. It is unlikely that DOC HOLIDAY, though better over the distance, will be able to stay close enough to land a telling blow.

Race Three

Selection: #6 GRAND TRAIN

One To Watch: #7 DR DEAREST

The selection was second in open $180,000 company just over a month ago and has been making fairly regular trips to the exercise track. He only has to repeat the effort of March 5 to take care of his nine rivals. DR DEAREST finished in front of the selection on December 19 last year, but the latter will have the services of a more accomplished rider this time and will not be denied.

Race Four

Selection: # VALLEY OF QUEENS (nap)


VALLEY OF QUEENS has fitness in her favour. After being claimed in January she returned an encouraging run for her new connections on March 9, clocking 1:00.4 over the straight while placing fifth by nine lengths. Note, however, that she was just four lengths behind a good horse, Fire Alarm, in that race. The connections would definitely have had Guineas Day in mind and have waited a month to land the big prize.

Race Five

Selection: #9 CONCLUSION

One To Watch: #8 DUSSELDORF

CONCLUSION was touched off by DR TRAIN, losing by just a head going 1300 metres, on March 28 and 2000 metres could be just what the doctor ordered. He was literally flying in the last 100 metres and with the rest of the fielding appearing to have stamina limitations he should be a lonely winner.

DUSSELDORF ran well on March 19 along with MR DOITBETTA and the two will battle for the minor places.

Race Six

Selection: #10 SUPER COP

A half-brother to Ali Baba, the 2015 2000 Guineas winner. He has been training extremely well and should have too much class for his rivals.

Race Seven

Selection: # 10 DREAM ADMIRAL

One To Watch: #3 SNEAK PEEK

The selection is making his seasonal debut after two good runs last December. He won by five lengths on December 12 and was claimed on December 19 after placing fifth by 10 lengths and clocking 1:42.4 over 1600 metres in non-winners of two company. He appears to be taking things easy on the exercise track, but a repeat of that performance will be enough to defeat this group.

SNEEK PEEK has been looking up since being fitted with new equipment on January 30. The equipment has been removed for today's run, however, and it will be interesting to see how he performs.

Race Eight

Selection: #11 MISS FEISTY


MISS FEISTY has been working longside SUPER COP, the selection for Race Six, and she should also not be beaten. SEEKING THE DAWN has also worked well, 1:01.3, on April 5 while sporting the visor. He clocked 1:00.0 for fourth over the straight while chasing splits of 22.3, 44.3 on January and will be a big danger.

Race Nine

Selection: #2 NUCLEAR AFFAIR

NUCLEAR AFFAIR has answered all the questions asked of her this year and will be too classy for her 1000 Guineas rivals. The stable companions BUBBLING KITTEN and SORRENTINO'S STAR will decide second and third.

Race Ten

Selection: #6 ELLE'S PEGASUS

One To Watch: #10 ORIGINAL TRAIN

This well-bred American did not show much when ninth by 14 lengths in overnight company on March 19. ELLE'S PEGASUS has ability, however, and with this big pull in the weights and Lasix administered is poised to show significant improvement.

ORIGINAL TRAIN has shown a likeness for two turns and will be running on at the finish.

Race Eleven

Selection: #10 FUTURE KING

One To Watch: #4 JAMAI RAJA

FUTURE KING ran on strongly to win the Jamaica Two-Year-Old Stakes last December but suffered a setback less than a month ago. At his best he would definitely defeat this 2000 Guineas field. He has been steadily prepared for this big assignment and it is unlikely that his connections would have given him his chance if he was not at least 95 per cent fit.

If FUTURE KING fails to fire then look no further than JAMAI RAJA. He has worked brilliantly and the trainer has removed the tongue tie for today's engagement and he may attempt to go all the way.

Other Sports Stories