Subbie will be no pushover
THROW SUBBIE's last three races out the window, overly ambitious attempts in the Governor's Cup and closing classics of Derby and St Leger. He had not been worse than second in his five previous races, giving him a sound shot of beating non-winners-of-two in tomorrow's Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association feature.
A lumbering one-paced colt, SUBBIE is no great shake but has the distance and power-rider Ameth Robles to his advantage in the 1400-metre event. He seemingly likes galloping out of the mile chute, getting off the mark at nine furlongs in May.
Though susceptible to a fast pace, which could leave him flat-footed, running three furlongs to the half-mile marker still leaves a lot of real estate for SUBBIE to get going and eventual wear down his rivals in the stretch run.
SANDORI, TEN CARATS and NIGHT LIGHT are expected to carry the fractions, ensuring an honest pace down the backstretch, sweet music to SUBBIE's ears.
SANDORI won his maiden race at 1400 metres on June 10, three weeks before TEN CARATS got off the mark at 1500 metres. However, both finished down the track when graduating to non-winners-of-two and weeks later.
Though SANDORI and TEN CARATS might be suspect up in class, they will certainly have a lot to say about the pace, possibly to the top of the straight. NIGHT LIGHT will get first run on the expected leaders but will have SUBBIE to contend with after that.
NIGHT LIGHT might very well be the most accomplished non-winner-of-two in the race, keeping really good company, but mainly as a run-on sprinter. He was subjected to running nine furlongs and 25 yards behind WESTERN WARRIOR last Saturday. Going seven furlongs a week later, carrying 56.0 kilos, could leave him winded in the rush for the wire.
SUBBIE reports fresher, having last raced in the July 15 St Leger in which he finished sixth, a length-and-three-quarter behind fifth-place THORNHILL MISS, having half of the 12-horse field behind him.
Note how trainer Gary Subratie got in an innocuous-looking five-furlong workout Sunday morning, strode in 1:08.2, his trademark workout for a horse that's ready to run.